<p>With the <a href="https://oilersnation.com/news/first-thoughts-matthew-savoie-isaac-howard-edmonton-oilers-vs-calgary-flames-rookie-game">Edmonton Oilers&#8217; rookie camp</a> underway and the full training camp starting next week, it’s hard not to think about the potential roster construction and line combinations for the upcoming regular season.</p>
<p></p>
<p>There’s some <a href="https://oilersnation.com/news/marjala-impresses-edmonton-oilers-rookie-showcase">good young talent</a> that appears to be ready to make the jump to the national league. And there are also a lot of more established, professional-level players who are competing for critical roster spots. With all the players being added, it’s become pretty obvious that some of the regular players from last season are either going to see their minutes be reduced or potentially be replaced completely, especially those further down the lineup.</p>
<p>It’s a harsh reality in the professional ranks, especially for those who are on the decline in their careers and have seen their numbers take a hit in recent seasons. Teams need to find any edge, even the slightest improvements. This is especially true if you&#8217;re a club pushing for a Stanley Cup Championship.</p>
<p>One player in particular who is at risk of being replaced this season is 35-year-old forward <a href="https://oilersnation.com/news/adam-henriques-drop-off-arrives-2024-25-edmonton-oilers-player-review">Adam Henrique</a>. Drafted in the third round in 2008, Henrique has had a solid career, putting up over 500 points in 15 NHL seasons, and is closing in on the 1,000-game mark.</p>
<p>But over the last few seasons, Henrique has&#8230;</p>
<ul>
<li>seen his point production decline;</li>
<li>been negatively impacting his team’s ability to control shots and scoring chances at even-strength; and</li>
<li>hasn’t had a positive impact on the special teams, specifically the penalty kill.</li>
</ul>
<p>Combine these current issues with the fact that he’s in the last season of his contract that pays him $3 million (with a no movement clause courtesy of Ken Holland) and the fact that contending teams need to be more creative to enhance their rosters due to the latest CBA changes — it’s not looking great for Henrique</p>
<h3>Productivity at even-strength (five-on-five)</h3>
<p>Last regular season, Henrique put up nine goals and eight assists in 81 games and finished 10th among <a href="https://oilersnation.com/news/edmonton-oilers-darnell-nurse-adam-henrique-declined-waive-no-trade-clause">Oiler forwards</a> with seventeen points at even-strength. This converts into a points per hour rate of only 1.07, which ranked 14th among Oiler forwards, and was in replacement-level territory. This rate was the lowest in Henrique’s career, and well below the 1.62 rate that he’d posted over the course of his career heading into last season.</p>
<p>Here’s how Henrique has produced since entering the league as a full-time player in 2011 as a 22-year-old. This is broken down by season and the team he played for, and also includes his age that season. He was fairly consistent in recent seasons, putting up second or third-line level production in Anaheim and Edmonton.</p>
<p><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="aligncenter wp-image-180560 size-full" src="http://publish.oilersnation.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/Henrique-P60.jpg" alt="" width="706" height="499" srcset="https://publish.oilersnation.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/Henrique-P60.jpg 706w, https://publish.oilersnation.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/Henrique-P60-300x212.jpg 300w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 706px) 100vw, 706px" /></p>
<p>It&#8217;s worth noting that while Henrique did post a rate of 1.93 points per hour in the 2023/24 season with Edmonton, he was riding a 108 PDO, indicating that a lot of his success was luck-driven. His on-ice shooting percentage and on-ice save percentage were well above normal levels, and it was bound to eventually crash back down to earth. This past 2024/25 season in Edmonton, his PDO was 99.8, which is right around league-average levels.</p>
<h3>Negative impact on the team’s even-strength performance</h3>
<p>Now, an argument could be made that Henrique didn’t have the best linemates last season, or that he wasn’t put into offensive situations. But the other harsh reality is that when Henrique was on the ice, and often against the other team’s lesser competition, the Oilers would typically get outshot and outchanced. Whoever he was on a line with or whoever was on the blueline with him would typically see their on-ice numbers crater when Henrique was deployed – indicating that it was likely a Henrique-issue rather than a team-wide issue.</p>
<p><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="aligncenter wp-image-180561 size-full" src="http://publish.oilersnation.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/Henrique-Rel.jpg" alt="" width="747" height="502" srcset="https://publish.oilersnation.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/Henrique-Rel.jpg 747w, https://publish.oilersnation.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/Henrique-Rel-300x202.jpg 300w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 747px) 100vw, 747px" /></p>
<p>In the last two seasons with Edmonton, Henrique’s on-ice numbers were significantly worse relative to the team’s levels, and that’s across all shot types.</p>
<p>For instance, with Henrique on the bench, the Oilers posted an Expected Goals For percentage of 57 percent. But when Henrique was deployed, that number dropped to 47 percent. That transferred into the post-season as well as Henrique’s on-ice expected goal-share was at 46 percent, while the team posted a share of 52 percent. Among all the forwards who played for Edmonton the last two seasons, Henrique’s shot share numbers were consistently at the bottom of the list.</p>
<h3>Not so special on special teams</h3>
<p>Henrique did have the coach&#8217;s trust on the penalty kill, which should work in his favor when he competes for a roster spot this upcoming season. In the last two seasons with Edmonton, Henrique played the fourth-most minutes among forwards on the penalty kill and the fourth-highest rate of minutes per game. His experience will definitely be an asset that the team will rely on.</p>
<p>What the coaching staff should hopefully be aware of is that the Oilers often saw the rate of shots and chances against increase whenever he was on the ice. Among the twelve forwards who played at least 20 minutes on the penalty kill the last two seasons, Henrique’s on-ice rate of shots and shot attempts against were the third highest. With Henrique on the ice, the Oilers saw their rate of unblocked shot attempts (i.e., Fenwick) increase by 12 per hour, an 18 percent increase relative to the team levels. If the Oilers are looking for improvement on the penalty kill, options are coming into training camp that should get a look.</p>
<h3>Final Thoughts</h3>
<p>The goal is a championship, and every move must be geared towards that. There’s going to be a lot of options for management and the coaching staff to build an optimal roster, with a good array of skillsets and experience to pick from.  And it’s no secret that the Oilers badly need an influx of youth, especially if they want to sustain their success and compete for cups.</p>
<p>There’s a chance Henrique has a great camp and solidifies a role in the middle six order up front and sees his numbers bounce back to previous seasons. But knowing what we know about aging curves among NHL players, and the fact that he’s been declining for a couple of seasons now — both in terms of point production and on-ice performance — it’s hard to make that bet. Plus, teams need to find new, creative ways to allocate their dollars more efficiently heading into the playoffs, making Henrique’s contract enticing to move.</p>
<p>The hope is that management is actively looking for and identifying gaps in their roster and addressing their issues to ensure that they keep pace with the other contenders in the league. And hopefully we see some realistic options emerge in camp and at the start of the season. It’s going to be critical.</p>
<p>Data: <a href="https://www.naturalstattrick.com/">Natural Stat Trick</a></p>

With the <a href="https://oilersnation.com/news/first-thoughts-matthew-savoie-isaac-howard-edmonton-oilers-vs-calgary-flames-rookie-game">Edmonton Oilers' rookie camp</a> underway and the full training camp starting next week, it’s hard not to think about the potential roster construction and line combinations for the upcoming regular season.



There’s some <a href="https://oilersnation.com/news/marjala-impresses-edmonton-oilers-rookie-showcase">good young talent</a> that appears to be ready to make the jump to the national league. And there are also a lot of more established, professional-level players who are competing for critical roster spots. With all the players being added, it’s become pretty obvious that some of the regular players from last season are either going to see their minutes be reduced or potentially be replaced completely, especially those further down the lineup.

It’s a harsh reality in the professional ranks, especially for those who are on the decline in their careers and have seen their numbers take a hit in recent seasons. Teams need to find any edge, even the slightest improvements. This is especially true if you're a club pushing for a Stanley Cup Championship.

One player in particular who is at risk of being replaced this season is 35-year-old forward <a href="https://oilersnation.com/news/adam-henriques-drop-off-arrives-2024-25-edmonton-oilers-player-review">Adam Henrique</a>. Drafted in the third round in 2008, Henrique has had a solid career, putting up over 500 points in 15 NHL seasons, and is closing in on the 1,000-game mark.

But over the last few seasons, Henrique has...
<ul>
 	<li>seen his point production decline;</li>
 	<li>been negatively impacting his team’s ability to control shots and scoring chances at even-strength; and</li>
 	<li>hasn’t had a positive impact on the special teams, specifically the penalty kill.</li>
</ul>
Combine these current issues with the fact that he’s in the last season of his contract that pays him $3 million (with a no movement clause courtesy of Ken Holland) and the fact that contending teams need to be more creative to enhance their rosters due to the latest CBA changes — it’s not looking great for Henrique
<h3>Productivity at even-strength (five-on-five)</h3>
Last regular season, Henrique put up nine goals and eight assists in 81 games and finished 10th among <a href="https://oilersnation.com/news/edmonton-oilers-darnell-nurse-adam-henrique-declined-waive-no-trade-clause">Oiler forwards</a> with seventeen points at even-strength. This converts into a points per hour rate of only 1.07, which ranked 14th among Oiler forwards, and was in replacement-level territory. This rate was the lowest in Henrique’s career, and well below the 1.62 rate that he’d posted over the course of his career heading into last season.

Here’s how Henrique has produced since entering the league as a full-time player in 2011 as a 22-year-old. This is broken down by season and the team he played for, and also includes his age that season. He was fairly consistent in recent seasons, putting up second or third-line level production in Anaheim and Edmonton.

<img class="aligncenter wp-image-180560 size-full" src="http://publish.oilersnation.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/Henrique-P60.jpg" alt="" width="706" height="499" />

It's worth noting that while Henrique did post a rate of 1.93 points per hour in the 2023/24 season with Edmonton, he was riding a 108 PDO, indicating that a lot of his success was luck-driven. His on-ice shooting percentage and on-ice save percentage were well above normal levels, and it was bound to eventually crash back down to earth. This past 2024/25 season in Edmonton, his PDO was 99.8, which is right around league-average levels.
<h3>Negative impact on the team’s even-strength performance</h3>
Now, an argument could be made that Henrique didn’t have the best linemates last season, or that he wasn’t put into offensive situations. But the other harsh reality is that when Henrique was on the ice, and often against the other team’s lesser competition, the Oilers would typically get outshot and outchanced. Whoever he was on a line with or whoever was on the blueline with him would typically see their on-ice numbers crater when Henrique was deployed – indicating that it was likely a Henrique-issue rather than a team-wide issue.

<img class="aligncenter wp-image-180561 size-full" src="http://publish.oilersnation.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/Henrique-Rel.jpg" alt="" width="747" height="502" />

In the last two seasons with Edmonton, Henrique’s on-ice numbers were significantly worse relative to the team’s levels, and that’s across all shot types.

For instance, with Henrique on the bench, the Oilers posted an Expected Goals For percentage of 57 percent. But when Henrique was deployed, that number dropped to 47 percent. That transferred into the post-season as well as Henrique’s on-ice expected goal-share was at 46 percent, while the team posted a share of 52 percent. Among all the forwards who played for Edmonton the last two seasons, Henrique’s shot share numbers were consistently at the bottom of the list.
<h3>Not so special on special teams</h3>
Henrique did have the coach's trust on the penalty kill, which should work in his favor when he competes for a roster spot this upcoming season. In the last two seasons with Edmonton, Henrique played the fourth-most minutes among forwards on the penalty kill and the fourth-highest rate of minutes per game. His experience will definitely be an asset that the team will rely on.

What the coaching staff should hopefully be aware of is that the Oilers often saw the rate of shots and chances against increase whenever he was on the ice. Among the twelve forwards who played at least 20 minutes on the penalty kill the last two seasons, Henrique’s on-ice rate of shots and shot attempts against were the third highest. With Henrique on the ice, the Oilers saw their rate of unblocked shot attempts (i.e., Fenwick) increase by 12 per hour, an 18 percent increase relative to the team levels. If the Oilers are looking for improvement on the penalty kill, options are coming into training camp that should get a look.
<h3>Final Thoughts</h3>
The goal is a championship, and every move must be geared towards that. There’s going to be a lot of options for management and the coaching staff to build an optimal roster, with a good array of skillsets and experience to pick from.  And it’s no secret that the Oilers badly need an influx of youth, especially if they want to sustain their success and compete for cups.

There’s a chance Henrique has a great camp and solidifies a role in the middle six order up front and sees his numbers bounce back to previous seasons. But knowing what we know about aging curves among NHL players, and the fact that he’s been declining for a couple of seasons now — both in terms of point production and on-ice performance — it’s hard to make that bet. Plus, teams need to find new, creative ways to allocate their dollars more efficiently heading into the playoffs, making Henrique’s contract enticing to move.

The hope is that management is actively looking for and identifying gaps in their roster and addressing their issues to ensure that they keep pace with the other contenders in the league. And hopefully we see some realistic options emerge in camp and at the start of the season. It’s going to be critical.

Data: <a href="https://www.naturalstattrick.com/">Natural Stat Trick</a>

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