<p>In case you haven’t heard, the Oilers signed <a href="https://oilersnation.com/news/what-does-successful-2025-26-season-look-like-edmonton-oilers-vasily-podkolzin">Vasily Podkolzin</a> to an extension worth $8.85 million over the next three seasons after this one, sporting an average annual value of $2.95 million. For the 2025-26 season, the Oilers will enjoy the winger&#8217;s services at a bargain-bin rate of $1 million.</p>
<p></p>
<p>To recap, Oilers GM Stan Bowman pulled off a tidy piece of business last summer when he flipped a fourth-round pick to Vancouver for Podkolzin after Dylan Holloway decided to leave the team in favour of the St. Louis Blues. Ironically, Edmonton got that fourth-round pick back this summer when they traded Evander Kane to the Canucks. It was used on forward David Lewandowski. </p>
<p>After a solid enough rookie season with Vancouver, Podkolzin had regressed to the point where the Canucks couldn’t seem to move on from him fast enough.</p>
<p>In his first season with the Oilers, while <a href="https://oilersnation.com/news/edmonton-oilers-fans-react-vasily-podkolzin-contract">Podkolzin</a> only scored eight goals all season, he brought an element of truculence to the team’s lineup, often riding shotgun with Leon Draisaitl. He also came within two points of matching his career-best total (24 vs. 26). More importantly, he showed the skating ability and defensive responsibility required to play with Draisaitl, something not every NHLer has in his toolbox.</p>
<p>That said, the Oilers are desperate for more offence outside the McDavid and Draisaitl duo. So, notwithstanding rumours of Draisaitl starting on McDavid’s wing, it’s entirely possible Andrew Mangiapane, who has better finishing touch right now, gets that look. Podkolzin, for his part, <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2K-Omp6S7lc">has publicly said</a> he wants to shoot more and score more. Don’t be shocked if he cycles back into the 2LW spot during the season.</p>
<p data-start="1632" data-end="2254">For a deeper dive into the fancy-stats side of this deal, check out <a href="https://oilersnation.com/news/edmonton-oilers-sign-vasily-podkolzin-three-year-extension">Zach Laing’s piece at ON</a>. Personally, this is exactly why I don’t put too much stock into certain advanced metrics. How can a guy who “drives offence at a three percent rate above league average” finish with just eight goals? That doesn’t compute to me. A player with that kind of supposed impact should at least clear the bare minimums expected of either a top- or bottom-six forward. As a disclaimer, I’m not criticizing Zach for using the stat; he’s doing his job analyzing the numbers. I’m pointing at the stat itself and what I see as a logical fallacy.</p>
<p data-start="2256" data-end="2733">It reminded me of a blog I wrote years ago where the late Bruce McCurdy suggested Valentin Zykov, who, at the time, didn’t even have a shot on goal, should be in Edmonton’s top six. To me, a bottom-six forward should at least provide depth scoring (five goals, 12-15 points on the fourth line; eight goals, 15-20 on the third). I wrote a blog disagreeing with McCurdy on his logical fallacy, and something unexpected happened — McCurdy actually read it and commented on it. I stood by what I said, though, and still do.</p>
<p data-start="2256" data-end="2733">You can&#8217;t just throw stuff against the wall and see what sticks when it comes to the players with the most responsibility for producing offence. A guy who is only a bottom-six forward will not only fail to produce offence but also get killed defensively, and that can not only undermine a player&#8217;s confidence and mental health but also cost the team wins. I don&#8217;t know about you, but to me, that means you better be 100 percent sure a guy can handle the minutes in the top six before you elevate him there. </p>
<p><div class="jetpack-video-wrapper"><iframe loading="lazy" title="Oilers&#039; Vasily Podkolzin Rips Wrister Past Adin Hill For First Career Post-Season Goal" width="1424" height="801" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/rJ6pjnzU95I?feature=oembed" frameborder="0" allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" referrerpolicy="strict-origin-when-cross-origin" allowfullscreen></iframe></div></p>
<h2 data-start="2256" data-end="2733">What do the Oilers need from Podkolzin?</h2>
<p data-start="2256" data-end="2733">Now, at this point, you may be asking me, did I contradict myself since Podkolzin met those minimums? Nope. Because playing next to McDavid or Draisaitl naturally inflates a winger’s numbers unless they’re completely overwhelmed. Podkolzin held his own. He fed pucks to Draisaitl, picked up assists, and proved he wasn’t out of place, but he also racked up more points than he would have playing alongside a bottom-six centre.</p>
<p data-start="3943" data-end="4215">Starting the season after this one, <a href="https://oilersnation.com/news/vasily-podkolzin-edmonton-oilers-top-six">Podkolzin</a> will be tripling his paycheck. This is right around the range that a forward is paid when it looks like he&#8217;s just on the cusp of kicking it up a notch and moving up from the bottom-six forward group to the top six forward group (Trent Frederic notwithstanding). If the team didn&#8217;t believe in his potential and saw him only as a bottom-six forward, they would&#8217;ve signed him to half that much at the absolute most, and probably only would have offered two years instead of three.</p>
<p data-start="3943" data-end="4215">On the other hand, if he were a surefire top-six forward, he would&#8217;ve been paid somewhere between $3 and $5 million. So, this is right where you want Podkolzin to be. It means the player is unproven right now and needs to score more to stay in the top-six, but that he&#8217;ll get there very soon. If the winger plays in the top-six forward group as expected, he will provide value scoring for the remainder of that contract before needing to probably double his cap hit again after it&#8217;s up.</p>
<p><div class="jetpack-video-wrapper"><iframe loading="lazy" title="Vasily Podkolzin vs Jeremy Lauzon Oct 31, 2024" width="1424" height="801" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/IDezm99ejIQ?feature=oembed" frameborder="0" allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" referrerpolicy="strict-origin-when-cross-origin" allowfullscreen></iframe></div></p>
<h2 data-start="3943" data-end="4215">What else does Podkolzin bring to the table?</h2>
<p data-start="3943" data-end="4215">The fact that Podkolzin led the team in hits last year, as well as being third in hits/60, shows that he has the potential to be not only a top-six forward, but a power forward on one of the top two forward lines. With Zach Hyman getting older and coming off major surgery, this is an important position for the Oilers to eventually fill. </p>
<p data-start="3943" data-end="4215">On the latter number, it&#8217;s also worth noting that Frederic only played a single game for the Oilers last season, so his number is likely more of a statistical anomaly. Max Jones, as we saw last season, is a great hitter, but that&#8217;s about all he brings to the table, which explains why he&#8217;s likely destined for waivers again this year. </p>
<p data-start="3943" data-end="4215">Although not a standout skill, <a href="https://oilersnation.com/news/random-thoughts-zach-hymans-timeline-evan-bouchard-edmonton-oilers-extend-vasily-podkolzin">Podkolzin</a> is also a decent shot blocker, finishing eighth on the Oilers last season in that regard. He&#8217;s also among the team&#8217;s most-used forwards on the penalty kill, spending an average of 44 seconds a game on the PK.</p>
<p data-start="3943" data-end="4215">Edmonton&#8217;s power play is pretty stacked right now, so unsurprisingly, they&#8217;re not going to try an unproven player there, but again, if Podkolzin can get his even-strength scoring rates up, don&#8217;t be surprised if someone else gets bumped off one of the PP units and Podz (as he&#8217;s affectionately known) is put in. </p>
<h2 data-start="3943" data-end="4215">Is there risk with this contract? </h2>
<p data-start="3943" data-end="4215">To an extent, yes. Paying a bottom-six forward almost $3 million a season is generally a poor use of cap space, so if <a href="https://oilersnation.com/news/vasily-podkolzin-contract-extension-projection-edmonton-oilers">Podkolzin</a> doesn’t secure a regular spot in the top six, this contract could age badly. But, on the other hand, if he does settle into the top six on the regular, the deal instantly becomes a bargain. If he can crack the 20-goal mark in any of the three seasons on this contract, it becomes an even bigger bargain.</p>
<p data-start="3943" data-end="4215">However, if you read the proverbial tea leaves and consider all the tools in Podkolzin’s toolbox, along with his proven chemistry with Draisait, you can see he’s right on the cusp of locking down a top-six role, and thus the risk in this contract is minimal. I would never speak in absolutes about a player until he proves it, but it certainly looks like Podkolzin is a future regular in the top six.</p>
<h2 data-start="3943" data-end="4215">One more thing&#8230;</h2>
<p data-start="3943" data-end="4215">I would be remiss if I didn&#8217;t mention that Podkolzin has taken a leave of absence from the team to go back to Russia to be with his family, as his father passed away very suddenly on the 23rd. I think I can speak for all of Oilersnation when I pass on my condolences to Podkolzin and his family and wish them mental and emotional strength during this extremely difficult time for them. </p>

<p>In case you haven’t heard, the Oilers signed <a href="https://oilersnation.com/news/what-does-successful-2025-26-season-look-like-edmonton-oilers-vasily-podkolzin">Vasily Podkolzin</a> to an extension worth $8.85 million over the next three seasons after this one, sporting an average annual value of $2.95 million. For the 2025-26 season, the Oilers will enjoy the winger's services at a bargain-bin rate of $1 million.</p>
<p></p>
<p>To recap, Oilers GM Stan Bowman pulled off a tidy piece of business last summer when he flipped a fourth-round pick to Vancouver for Podkolzin after Dylan Holloway decided to leave the team in favour of the St. Louis Blues. Ironically, Edmonton got that fourth-round pick back this summer when they traded Evander Kane to the Canucks. It was used on forward David Lewandowski. </p>
<p>After a solid enough rookie season with Vancouver, Podkolzin had regressed to the point where the Canucks couldn’t seem to move on from him fast enough.</p>
<p>In his first season with the Oilers, while <a href="https://oilersnation.com/news/edmonton-oilers-fans-react-vasily-podkolzin-contract">Podkolzin</a> only scored eight goals all season, he brought an element of truculence to the team’s lineup, often riding shotgun with Leon Draisaitl. He also came within two points of matching his career-best total (24 vs. 26). More importantly, he showed the skating ability and defensive responsibility required to play with Draisaitl, something not every NHLer has in his toolbox.</p>
<p>That said, the Oilers are desperate for more offence outside the McDavid and Draisaitl duo. So, notwithstanding rumours of Draisaitl starting on McDavid’s wing, it’s entirely possible Andrew Mangiapane, who has better finishing touch right now, gets that look. Podkolzin, for his part, <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2K-Omp6S7lc">has publicly said</a> he wants to shoot more and score more. Don’t be shocked if he cycles back into the 2LW spot during the season.</p>
<p data-start="1632" data-end="2254">For a deeper dive into the fancy-stats side of this deal, check out <a href="https://oilersnation.com/news/edmonton-oilers-sign-vasily-podkolzin-three-year-extension">Zach Laing’s piece at ON</a>. Personally, this is exactly why I don’t put too much stock into certain advanced metrics. How can a guy who “drives offence at a three percent rate above league average” finish with just eight goals? That doesn’t compute to me. A player with that kind of supposed impact should at least clear the bare minimums expected of either a top- or bottom-six forward. As a disclaimer, I’m not criticizing Zach for using the stat; he’s doing his job analyzing the numbers. I’m pointing at the stat itself and what I see as a logical fallacy.</p>
<p data-start="2256" data-end="2733">It reminded me of a blog I wrote years ago where the late Bruce McCurdy suggested Valentin Zykov, who, at the time, didn’t even have a shot on goal, should be in Edmonton’s top six. To me, a bottom-six forward should at least provide depth scoring (five goals, 12-15 points on the fourth line; eight goals, 15-20 on the third). I wrote a blog disagreeing with McCurdy on his logical fallacy, and something unexpected happened — McCurdy actually read it and commented on it. I stood by what I said, though, and still do.</p>
<p data-start="2256" data-end="2733">You can't just throw stuff against the wall and see what sticks when it comes to the players with the most responsibility for producing offence. A guy who is only a bottom-six forward will not only fail to produce offence but also get killed defensively, and that can not only undermine a player's confidence and mental health but also cost the team wins. I don't know about you, but to me, that means you better be 100 percent sure a guy can handle the minutes in the top six before you elevate him there. </p>
<p>https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rJ6pjnzU95I</p>
<h2 data-start="2256" data-end="2733">What do the Oilers need from Podkolzin?</h2>
<p data-start="2256" data-end="2733">Now, at this point, you may be asking me, did I contradict myself since Podkolzin met those minimums? Nope. Because playing next to McDavid or Draisaitl naturally inflates a winger’s numbers unless they’re completely overwhelmed. Podkolzin held his own. He fed pucks to Draisaitl, picked up assists, and proved he wasn’t out of place, but he also racked up more points than he would have playing alongside a bottom-six centre.</p>
<p data-start="3943" data-end="4215">Starting the season after this one, <a href="https://oilersnation.com/news/vasily-podkolzin-edmonton-oilers-top-six">Podkolzin</a> will be tripling his paycheck. This is right around the range that a forward is paid when it looks like he's just on the cusp of kicking it up a notch and moving up from the bottom-six forward group to the top six forward group (Trent Frederic notwithstanding). If the team didn't believe in his potential and saw him only as a bottom-six forward, they would've signed him to half that much at the absolute most, and probably only would have offered two years instead of three.</p>
<p data-start="3943" data-end="4215">On the other hand, if he were a surefire top-six forward, he would've been paid somewhere between $3 and $5 million. So, this is right where you want Podkolzin to be. It means the player is unproven right now and needs to score more to stay in the top-six, but that he'll get there very soon. If the winger plays in the top-six forward group as expected, he will provide value scoring for the remainder of that contract before needing to probably double his cap hit again after it's up.</p>
<p>https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IDezm99ejIQ</p>
<h2 data-start="3943" data-end="4215">What else does Podkolzin bring to the table?</h2>
<p data-start="3943" data-end="4215">The fact that Podkolzin led the team in hits last year, as well as being third in hits/60, shows that he has the potential to be not only a top-six forward, but a power forward on one of the top two forward lines. With Zach Hyman getting older and coming off major surgery, this is an important position for the Oilers to eventually fill. </p>
<p data-start="3943" data-end="4215">On the latter number, it's also worth noting that Frederic only played a single game for the Oilers last season, so his number is likely more of a statistical anomaly. Max Jones, as we saw last season, is a great hitter, but that's about all he brings to the table, which explains why he's likely destined for waivers again this year. </p>
<p data-start="3943" data-end="4215">Although not a standout skill, <a href="https://oilersnation.com/news/random-thoughts-zach-hymans-timeline-evan-bouchard-edmonton-oilers-extend-vasily-podkolzin">Podkolzin</a> is also a decent shot blocker, finishing eighth on the Oilers last season in that regard. He's also among the team's most-used forwards on the penalty kill, spending an average of 44 seconds a game on the PK.</p>
<p data-start="3943" data-end="4215">Edmonton's power play is pretty stacked right now, so unsurprisingly, they're not going to try an unproven player there, but again, if Podkolzin can get his even-strength scoring rates up, don't be surprised if someone else gets bumped off one of the PP units and Podz (as he's affectionately known) is put in. </p>
<h2 data-start="3943" data-end="4215">Is there risk with this contract? </h2>
<p data-start="3943" data-end="4215">To an extent, yes. Paying a bottom-six forward almost $3 million a season is generally a poor use of cap space, so if <a href="https://oilersnation.com/news/vasily-podkolzin-contract-extension-projection-edmonton-oilers">Podkolzin</a> doesn’t secure a regular spot in the top six, this contract could age badly. But, on the other hand, if he does settle into the top six on the regular, the deal instantly becomes a bargain. If he can crack the 20-goal mark in any of the three seasons on this contract, it becomes an even bigger bargain.</p>
<p data-start="3943" data-end="4215">However, if you read the proverbial tea leaves and consider all the tools in Podkolzin’s toolbox, along with his proven chemistry with Draisait, you can see he’s right on the cusp of locking down a top-six role, and thus the risk in this contract is minimal. I would never speak in absolutes about a player until he proves it, but it certainly looks like Podkolzin is a future regular in the top six.</p>
<h2 data-start="3943" data-end="4215">One more thing...</h2>
<p data-start="3943" data-end="4215">I would be remiss if I didn't mention that Podkolzin has taken a leave of absence from the team to go back to Russia to be with his family, as his father passed away very suddenly on the 23rd. I think I can speak for all of Oilersnation when I pass on my condolences to Podkolzin and his family and wish them mental and emotional strength during this extremely difficult time for them. </p>

Thoughts on Vasily Podkolzin’s new contract and what the Oilers can expect from the winger

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