Whether it’s McDavid’s quest to surpass the 50-goal mark again or Skinner’s bid to reclaim his scoring touch, the Edmonton Oilers’ regular season goal totals offer intriguing storylines and betting opportunities. With goal totals set by Bet 99 sportsbook for stars like Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Zach Hyman, Evan Bouchard, and Jeff Skinner, fans and bettors alike can now put their predictive skills to the test.
Connor McDavid – Over/Under 51.5 Goals (-115)
Connor McDavid set the hockey world on fire with 64 goals in the 2022-23 season, but his total was halved in 2023-24. His 0.42 goals per game last season was the lowest rate since his sophomore year, but this drop was likely an aberration, as he had averaged 0.58 goals per game over the previous six seasons.
That said, 51.5 goals is a rather high regular season total for McDavid. The projection should reflect what we would expect on average, and McDavid has only scored at a 50-goal pace once in his career. His next-best season came during the 56-game campaign in 2020-21, when the seven Canadian teams were confined to the North Division.
Additionally, the Oilers added some goal scorers this offseason, so McDavid will now likely have another player capable of scoring 30-plus or 40-plus goals to pass the puck to on top of Zach Hyman. Therefore, my initial thought is that McDavid will score fewer than 51 goals. However, bet365 has McDavid listed at 47.5 regular season goals (over/under -110) and that’s an over that might be worth considering.
Leon Draisaitl Over/Under 49.5 Goals (-115)
After posting back-to-back 50-plus goal seasons, Leon Draisaitl experienced a slight dip in 2023-24. Despite this decrease, the 28-year-old still managed to surpass the 40-goal mark for the fifth time in 10 seasons.
Draisaitl’s shots on goal per game also declined, averaging 2.7 in 2023-24 compared to 3.1 in the previous five seasons. However, given his history of scoring at a 50-goal pace in four of the last six seasons, there’s reason to believe he will bounce back. Consequently, sportsbooks have set his goal total at 49.5 for the 2024-25 regular season.
This upcoming season could also be a contract year for Draisaitl unless he signs an extension beforehand. Additionally, with potential linemates like Viktor Arvidsson and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Draisaitl may benefit from improved support compared to last season. Evander Kane, Warren Foegele, Ryan McLeod, and Connor Brown are all fine players, but No. 29 should have more talented players to play with.
Still, 50 goals is a tough mark to hit, and it’ll only get tougher as Draisaitl ages. I’m more confident that he will score 110-plus points given that he has averaged almost 62 assists per season since 2018-19.
Zach Hyman Over/Under 43.5 Goals (-115)
Zach Hyman set a career-high with 54 goals last season, a significant leap from his previous best, and sportsbooks are rightfully projecting a considerable regression.
Hyman scored 0.406 goals per game in his first two seasons with the Oilers, but that rate jumped to 0.675 goals per game in 2023-24. Even if he plays all 82 games, his pace since leaving Toronto has been 0.5 goals per game, which translates to about 41 goals over a full season.
To hit 44 goals in 82 games, the 32-year-old would need to score at a rate of roughly 0.54 goals per game. Any games missed due to injury or illness would make reaching that target even more difficult. Based on Monday’s Mailbag responses, it seems unlikely Hyman will surpass the 43.5-goal mark set by oddsmakers at Bet99, and it’s hard to argue otherwise.
Jeff Skinner Over/Under 31.5 Goals (-115)
Jeff Skinner, who was bought out of the final three years of his $9 million AAV contract with the Buffalo Sabres, is projected by oddsmakers to rejoin the 30-goal club following his signing with the Oilers.
The 32-year-old forward initially made a splash with a career-high 40 goals in his first season (2018-19) with the Sabres but struggled in the subsequent two years. Skinner rebounded with back-to-back 30-plus goal seasons but tallied just 24 goals and 46 points in 74 games last season. For the 2024-25 regular season, sportsbooks have set Skinner’s total goals at 31.5, which hinges on whether he plays the majority of his minutes alongside Connor McDavid.
If Skinner skates frequently with No. 97, it’s reasonable to expect he could come close to surpassing his goal total. However, nothing is set in stone, making 31.5 a fair projection—give or take a couple of goals—given the uncertainty about his lineup position.
Evan Bouchard Over/Under 17.5 Goals (-115)
It seems like only a matter of time before Evan Bouchard joins the 100-point club. Sportsbooks currently set his total points for the 2024-25 regular season between 82.5 and 84.5, following his career-high 82 points in 81 games last season. The soon-to-be 25-year-old also scored a personal best 18 goals in the 2023-24 season, with oddsmakers setting his total goals at 17.5 for the upcoming season.
While some might expect Bouchard’s 8.2% shooting percentage to revert closer to his career average and bet the under, he also scored on 9.2% of his shots in the postseason. Additionally, don’t overlook the possibility that he will increase his shot volume. The Oilers rely on what has been affectionately dubbed the ‘Bouch Bomb’.
Bouchard registered 2.72 shots per game in the regular season and 2.96 in the playoffs. If he maintains a rate somewhere between these figures in the 2024-25 season, he could finish with around 230 shots. To score 18 goals on 230 shots, his shooting percentage would need to be around 8%, making it a close call.
Let us know in the comments how many goals you think each of the aforementioned players will score in the upcoming season.