Good morning, everyone, and a happy Monday to you all. As always, I&#8217;ve got a fresh mailbag ready to go after taking your questions and sending them to the crew for their take on whatever&#8217;s on your mind. This week, we&#8217;re discussing the Connor McDavid contract noise, expectations for rookie Oilers, Trent Frederic&#8217;s first full year in Edmonton, and more. If you’ve got a question you’d like to ask, email it to me at <a class="text-accent" href="mailto:baggedmilk@oilersnation.com" rel="noopener noreferrer">baggedmilk@oilersnation.com</a> or on Twitter at <a class="text-accent" href="https://www.twitter.com/jsbmbaggedmilk" rel="noopener noreferrer">@jsbmbaggedmilk</a>, and I’ll get to you as soon as I can.

<figure id="attachment_179630" aria-describedby="caption-attachment-179630" style="width: 819px" class="wp-caption aligncenter"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class=" wp-image-179630" src="http://publish.oilersnation.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/08/USATSI_26459301-1024x683.jpg" alt="Edmonton Oilers Connor McDavid" width="819" height="546" srcset="https://publish.oilersnation.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/08/USATSI_26459301-1024x683.jpg 1024w, https://publish.oilersnation.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/08/USATSI_26459301-300x200.jpg 300w, https://publish.oilersnation.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/08/USATSI_26459301-768x512.jpg 768w, https://publish.oilersnation.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/08/USATSI_26459301-1536x1024.jpg 1536w, https://publish.oilersnation.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/08/USATSI_26459301-2048x1366.jpg 2048w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 819px) 100vw, 819px" /><figcaption id="caption-attachment-179630" class="wp-caption-text">Jun 14, 2025; Edmonton, Alberta, CAN; Edmonton Oilers center Connor McDavid (97) celebrates scoring during the third period against the Florida Panthers in game five of the 2025 Stanley Cup Final at Rogers Place. Mandatory Credit: Perry Nelson-Imagn Images</figcaption></figure>
1) Dale asks &#8211; Are we reading too much into <a href="https://publish.oilersnation.com/2025/08/27/connor-mcdavid-all-options-are-on-the-table-contract-extension-edmonton-oilers-every-intention-to-win-in-edmonton/">Connor McDavid&#8217;s comments</a> about his contract? It&#8217;s almost like we&#8217;re expecting him to say, &#8220;Yes, I&#8217;m signing, and it will happen soon.&#8221; Would he not be giving up bargaining power if he did that?
Jason Gregor:
Of course. The Oilers had contact with his agent over the summer, but they never had serious discussions as they wanted to give McDavid some time off. He had a short summer combined with weddings for his brother and Leon Draisaitl. I don’t think much has changed. I never thought a deal would happen until September, so I’m not surprised nothing has happened yet. I still lean towards a four-year deal being what he signs for.
Baggedmilk:
Yes. We are 1000% reading too much into every word that leaves his mouth. And, unfortunately, I don&#8217;t see the noise quieting down until his name is on the dotted line.
<figure id="attachment_178726" aria-describedby="caption-attachment-178726" style="width: 845px" class="wp-caption aligncenter"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class=" wp-image-178726" src="http://publish.oilersnation.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/07/USATSI_26127885-1024x683.jpg" alt="Edmonton Oilers forward Trent Frederic" width="845" height="563" srcset="https://publish.oilersnation.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/07/USATSI_26127885-1024x683.jpg 1024w, https://publish.oilersnation.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/07/USATSI_26127885-300x200.jpg 300w, https://publish.oilersnation.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/07/USATSI_26127885-768x512.jpg 768w, https://publish.oilersnation.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/07/USATSI_26127885-1536x1024.jpg 1536w, https://publish.oilersnation.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/07/USATSI_26127885-2048x1365.jpg 2048w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 845px) 100vw, 845px" /><figcaption id="caption-attachment-178726" class="wp-caption-text">May 8, 2025; Las Vegas, Nevada, USA; Edmonton Oilers center Trent Frederic (21) keeps the puck away from Vegas Golden Knights right wing Victor Olofsson (95) during the first period of game two of the second round of the 2025 Stanley Cup Playoffs at T-Mobile Arena. Mandatory Credit: Stephen R. Sylvanie-Imagn Images</figcaption></figure>
2) Brendyn asks &#8211; Obviously, <a href="https://publish.oilersnation.com/2025/07/20/trent-frederic-impact-player-edmonton-oilers-contract/">Trent Frederic</a> didn&#8217;t have the best run with <a href="https://oilersnation.com/combinations">the Oilers</a> in the playoffs because he was hurt, but what do you think reasonable expectations are for him in his first full season in Edmonton?
Jason Gregor:
Offensively I think realistic production would be 15-18 goals and 32-40 points. But he will bring physicality and energy as well. He’s a third line player who could moonlight in the top six at times.
Baggedmilk:
I&#8217;m expecting 15-20 goals and five+ fights. Mostly, I&#8217;m just excited to see what he can do with that ankle finally healed up and a summer of training and getting to know the organization under his belt.
<figure id="attachment_178127" aria-describedby="caption-attachment-178127" style="width: 879px" class="wp-caption aligncenter"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class=" wp-image-178127" src="http://publish.oilersnation.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/07/USATSI_26102058-1024x683.jpg" alt="Edmonton Oilers forward Andrew Mangiapane" width="879" height="586" srcset="https://publish.oilersnation.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/07/USATSI_26102058-1024x683.jpg 1024w, https://publish.oilersnation.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/07/USATSI_26102058-300x200.jpg 300w, https://publish.oilersnation.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/07/USATSI_26102058-768x512.jpg 768w, https://publish.oilersnation.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/07/USATSI_26102058-1536x1024.jpg 1536w, https://publish.oilersnation.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/07/USATSI_26102058-2048x1365.jpg 2048w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 879px) 100vw, 879px" /><figcaption id="caption-attachment-178127" class="wp-caption-text">Apr 30, 2025; Washington, District of Columbia, USA; Washington Capitals left wing Andrew Mangiapane (88) shoots the puck against the Montreal Canadiens in game five of the first round of the 2025 Stanley Cup Playoffs at Capital One Arena. Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-Imagn Images</figcaption></figure>
3) Gregg asks &#8211; It&#8217;s going to take time for him to settle in, but who do you think will be the best stylistic centre fit for <a href="https://publish.oilersnation.com/2025/07/07/edmonton-oilers-better-with-andrew-mangiapane-over-viktor-arvidsson/">Andrew Mangiapane</a> and why?
Jason Gregor:
I’m not sure I see a better stylistic fit between Draisaitl and McDavid. Both are great passers. Mangiapane’s best year was with Mikael Backlund. He isn’t very similar to McDavid or Draisaitl. I see him starting on RW with Draisaitl as Hyman is best with McDavid.
Baggedmilk:
I think he&#8217;s going to be pumped to play with any of McDavid, Draisaitl, or Nugent-Hopkins. I&#8217;d like to see him on Draisaitl&#8217;s wing because he&#8217;s got a knack for finding the middle of the ice and Leon is an incredible passer on the forehand and backhand.
<figure id="attachment_160591" aria-describedby="caption-attachment-160591" style="width: 1024px" class="wp-caption aligncenter"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="size-large wp-image-160591" src="http://publish.oilersnation.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/Edmonton-Oilers-prospect-Matthew-Savoie-1024x683.jpg" alt="Edmonton Oilers prospect Matthew Savoie" width="1024" height="683" srcset="https://publish.oilersnation.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/Edmonton-Oilers-prospect-Matthew-Savoie-1024x683.jpg 1024w, https://publish.oilersnation.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/Edmonton-Oilers-prospect-Matthew-Savoie-300x200.jpg 300w, https://publish.oilersnation.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/Edmonton-Oilers-prospect-Matthew-Savoie-768x512.jpg 768w, https://publish.oilersnation.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/Edmonton-Oilers-prospect-Matthew-Savoie-1536x1024.jpg 1536w, https://publish.oilersnation.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/Edmonton-Oilers-prospect-Matthew-Savoie-2048x1366.jpg 2048w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /><figcaption id="caption-attachment-160591" class="wp-caption-text">Edmonton Oilers prospect Matthew Savoie at the Penticton Young Stars Tournament</figcaption></figure>
4) Nathan asks &#8211; Are we getting ahead of ourselves with expecting both <a href="https://publish.oilersnation.com/2025/08/25/edmonton-oilers-matt-savoie-isaac-howard-top-75-nhl-affiliated-prospects/">Ike Howard and Matt Savoie</a> to be NHL contributors despite their lack of experience?
Jason Gregor:
Yes. I’m not sold Howard will be a regular in the NHL. It is his first pro season. Over 75% of NHL players spend some time in the AHL. I think Savoie will be a regular to start the season and likely starts on the third line. I’d have low offensive expectations of both, and if they overachieve then it is a bonus, rather than projecting them to score 20 as rookies, and if they don’t, then being mad.
Over the past four seasons only four rookies have scored 20+ goals at EV. Michael Bunting, Tanner Jeannot and Wyatt Johnston (21) and Matt Beniers (20). They all played over 15:29/game. The Oilers only had four forwards who averaged over 15 minutes/game last year in McDavid, Draisaitl, RNH and Hyman.
I used EV, because I don’t see either getting a lot of PP time. But even when you look at total goals, we’ve seen 16 rookies scored 20+ goals the past four seasons and only one averaged less than 15:29/game and that was Cutter Gauthier at 14:09.
I think many need to recalibrate their offensive expectations for Howard and Savoie. I hope, for their sake, one or both surprise and produce a lot, but history tells me it is unlikely. And that is totally fine. The Oilers are a legitimate Cup contender and they don’t need a rookie to carry them. If one has a surprise season that is a bonus, but shouldn’t be looked as an expectation.
Baggedmilk:
I&#8217;m worried about it a little bit, tbh. I think Savoie will be solid — there will be ups and downs but he&#8217;s going to be good. Howard is getting a lot of hype and hasn&#8217;t played a pro game yet, and that&#8217;s what makes me nervous. Obviously, I hope he comes in and blows the doors off, but I&#8217;m not necessarily expecting that to happen either.
<figure id="attachment_172940" aria-describedby="caption-attachment-172940" style="width: 882px" class="wp-caption aligncenter"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class=" wp-image-172940" src="http://publish.oilersnation.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/USATSI_25875113-1024x683.jpg" alt="Edmonton Oilers Anaheim Ducks" width="882" height="588" srcset="https://publish.oilersnation.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/USATSI_25875113-1024x683.jpg 1024w, https://publish.oilersnation.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/USATSI_25875113-300x200.jpg 300w, https://publish.oilersnation.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/USATSI_25875113-768x512.jpg 768w, https://publish.oilersnation.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/USATSI_25875113-1536x1024.jpg 1536w, https://publish.oilersnation.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/USATSI_25875113-2048x1365.jpg 2048w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 882px) 100vw, 882px" /><figcaption id="caption-attachment-172940" class="wp-caption-text">Apr 7, 2025; Anaheim, California, USA; Anaheim Ducks goaltender Lukas Dostal (1) defends the goal against Edmonton Oilers left wing Zach Hyman (18) during the third period at Honda Center. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images</figcaption></figure>
5) Oilers fan in Van asks &#8211; Which Pacific Division team do you think will surprise us this season either for good or bad reasons?
Jason Gregor:
Anaheim will be better, but I’m not sure if their blueline is good enough to make the playoffs. Calgary will have fewer than 96 points like they had last year. I don’t see them cratering, but I don’t think they will be in the playoff hunt until the final day of the season like last year.
Baggedmilk:
I think LA misses the playoffs. How&#8217;s that for a hot take?
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Good morning, everyone, and a happy Monday to you all. As always, I've got a fresh mailbag ready to go after taking your questions and sending them to the crew for their take on whatever's on your mind. This week, we're discussing the Connor McDavid contract noise, expectations for rookie Oilers, Trent Frederic's first full year in Edmonton, and more. If you’ve got a question you’d like to ask, email it to me at <a class="text-accent" href="mailto:baggedmilk@oilersnation.com" rel="noopener noreferrer">baggedmilk@oilersnation.com</a> or on Twitter at <a class="text-accent" href="https://www.twitter.com/jsbmbaggedmilk" rel="noopener noreferrer">@jsbmbaggedmilk</a>, and I’ll get to you as soon as I can.



[caption id="attachment_179630" align="aligncenter" width="819"]<img class=" wp-image-179630" src="http://publish.oilersnation.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/08/USATSI_26459301-1024x683.jpg" alt="Edmonton Oilers Connor McDavid" width="819" height="546" /> Jun 14, 2025; Edmonton, Alberta, CAN; Edmonton Oilers center Connor McDavid (97) celebrates scoring during the third period against the Florida Panthers in game five of the 2025 Stanley Cup Final at Rogers Place. Mandatory Credit: Perry Nelson-Imagn Images[/caption]

1) Dale asks - Are we reading too much into <a href="https://publish.oilersnation.com/2025/08/27/connor-mcdavid-all-options-are-on-the-table-contract-extension-edmonton-oilers-every-intention-to-win-in-edmonton/">Connor McDavid's comments</a> about his contract? It's almost like we're expecting him to say, "Yes, I'm signing, and it will happen soon." Would he not be giving up bargaining power if he did that?

Jason Gregor:

Of course. The Oilers had contact with his agent over the summer, but they never had serious discussions as they wanted to give McDavid some time off. He had a short summer combined with weddings for his brother and Leon Draisaitl. I don’t think much has changed. I never thought a deal would happen until September, so I’m not surprised nothing has happened yet. I still lean towards a four-year deal being what he signs for.

Baggedmilk:

Yes. We are 1000% reading too much into every word that leaves his mouth. And, unfortunately, I don't see the noise quieting down until his name is on the dotted line.

[caption id="attachment_178726" align="aligncenter" width="845"]<img class=" wp-image-178726" src="http://publish.oilersnation.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/07/USATSI_26127885-1024x683.jpg" alt="Edmonton Oilers forward Trent Frederic" width="845" height="563" /> May 8, 2025; Las Vegas, Nevada, USA; Edmonton Oilers center Trent Frederic (21) keeps the puck away from Vegas Golden Knights right wing Victor Olofsson (95) during the first period of game two of the second round of the 2025 Stanley Cup Playoffs at T-Mobile Arena. Mandatory Credit: Stephen R. Sylvanie-Imagn Images[/caption]

2) Brendyn asks - Obviously, <a href="https://publish.oilersnation.com/2025/07/20/trent-frederic-impact-player-edmonton-oilers-contract/">Trent Frederic</a> didn't have the best run with <a href="https://oilersnation.com/combinations">the Oilers</a> in the playoffs because he was hurt, but what do you think reasonable expectations are for him in his first full season in Edmonton?

Jason Gregor:

Offensively I think realistic production would be 15-18 goals and 32-40 points. But he will bring physicality and energy as well. He’s a third line player who could moonlight in the top six at times.

Baggedmilk:

I'm expecting 15-20 goals and five+ fights. Mostly, I'm just excited to see what he can do with that ankle finally healed up and a summer of training and getting to know the organization under his belt.

[caption id="attachment_178127" align="aligncenter" width="879"]<img class=" wp-image-178127" src="http://publish.oilersnation.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/07/USATSI_26102058-1024x683.jpg" alt="Edmonton Oilers forward Andrew Mangiapane" width="879" height="586" /> Apr 30, 2025; Washington, District of Columbia, USA; Washington Capitals left wing Andrew Mangiapane (88) shoots the puck against the Montreal Canadiens in game five of the first round of the 2025 Stanley Cup Playoffs at Capital One Arena. Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-Imagn Images[/caption]

3) Gregg asks - It's going to take time for him to settle in, but who do you think will be the best stylistic centre fit for <a href="https://publish.oilersnation.com/2025/07/07/edmonton-oilers-better-with-andrew-mangiapane-over-viktor-arvidsson/">Andrew Mangiapane</a> and why?

Jason Gregor:

I’m not sure I see a better stylistic fit between Draisaitl and McDavid. Both are great passers. Mangiapane’s best year was with Mikael Backlund. He isn’t very similar to McDavid or Draisaitl. I see him starting on RW with Draisaitl as Hyman is best with McDavid.

Baggedmilk:

I think he's going to be pumped to play with any of McDavid, Draisaitl, or Nugent-Hopkins. I'd like to see him on Draisaitl's wing because he's got a knack for finding the middle of the ice and Leon is an incredible passer on the forehand and backhand.

[caption id="attachment_160591" align="aligncenter" width="1024"]<img class="size-large wp-image-160591" src="http://publish.oilersnation.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/Edmonton-Oilers-prospect-Matthew-Savoie-1024x683.jpg" alt="Edmonton Oilers prospect Matthew Savoie" width="1024" height="683" /> Edmonton Oilers prospect Matthew Savoie at the Penticton Young Stars Tournament[/caption]

4) Nathan asks - Are we getting ahead of ourselves with expecting both <a href="https://publish.oilersnation.com/2025/08/25/edmonton-oilers-matt-savoie-isaac-howard-top-75-nhl-affiliated-prospects/">Ike Howard and Matt Savoie</a> to be NHL contributors despite their lack of experience?

Jason Gregor:

Yes. I’m not sold Howard will be a regular in the NHL. It is his first pro season. Over 75% of NHL players spend some time in the AHL. I think Savoie will be a regular to start the season and likely starts on the third line. I’d have low offensive expectations of both, and if they overachieve then it is a bonus, rather than projecting them to score 20 as rookies, and if they don’t, then being mad.

Over the past four seasons only four rookies have scored 20+ goals at EV. Michael Bunting, Tanner Jeannot and Wyatt Johnston (21) and Matt Beniers (20). They all played over 15:29/game. The Oilers only had four forwards who averaged over 15 minutes/game last year in McDavid, Draisaitl, RNH and Hyman.

I used EV, because I don’t see either getting a lot of PP time. But even when you look at total goals, we’ve seen 16 rookies scored 20+ goals the past four seasons and only one averaged less than 15:29/game and that was Cutter Gauthier at 14:09.

I think many need to recalibrate their offensive expectations for Howard and Savoie. I hope, for their sake, one or both surprise and produce a lot, but history tells me it is unlikely. And that is totally fine. The Oilers are a legitimate Cup contender and they don’t need a rookie to carry them. If one has a surprise season that is a bonus, but shouldn’t be looked as an expectation.

Baggedmilk:

I'm worried about it a little bit, tbh. I think Savoie will be solid — there will be ups and downs but he's going to be good. Howard is getting a lot of hype and hasn't played a pro game yet, and that's what makes me nervous. Obviously, I hope he comes in and blows the doors off, but I'm not necessarily expecting that to happen either.

[caption id="attachment_172940" align="aligncenter" width="882"]<img class=" wp-image-172940" src="http://publish.oilersnation.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/USATSI_25875113-1024x683.jpg" alt="Edmonton Oilers Anaheim Ducks" width="882" height="588" /> Apr 7, 2025; Anaheim, California, USA; Anaheim Ducks goaltender Lukas Dostal (1) defends the goal against Edmonton Oilers left wing Zach Hyman (18) during the third period at Honda Center. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images[/caption]

5) Oilers fan in Van asks - Which Pacific Division team do you think will surprise us this season either for good or bad reasons?

Jason Gregor:

Anaheim will be better, but I’m not sure if their blueline is good enough to make the playoffs. Calgary will have fewer than 96 points like they had last year. I don’t see them cratering, but I don’t think they will be in the playoff hunt until the final day of the season like last year.

Baggedmilk:

I think LA misses the playoffs. How's that for a hot take?
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