The Edmonton Oilers average the third-most 5×5 time on ice per game in the NHL at 50:12. Only Vegas (51:25) and St. Louis (50:16) have played more. The Oilers spend 83.67 percent of regulation time playing 5×5, and when their 5×5 play is sound, they usually win games. Their recent play outlines this accurately.

The Oilers’ 5×5 play, at both ends of the rink, wasn’t very good during their 11-game funk from January 30th to March 3rd. They went 3-7-1 and in their three victories they allowed a total of three goals against 5×5, but in their eight losses they allowed 28 — a stark contrast. It was the same offensively as they only scored 12 goals 5×5 in the eight losses, while scoring four in their three victories.

Much of the Oilers’ success this season comes from strong 5×5 play.

They are 22-3 in games where they score 3+ goals 5×5. They are 8-3-4 when they score two, 4-6-3 when scoring one and 2-8 when scoring none.

They are 4-14-2 when allowing 3+ goals against, they are 15-6-1 when allowing two, 11-3 when they give up and 7-0 when allowing none.

They are 14-14-1 when they give up a power play goal and they are 20-10-4 when they score on the power play.

The Oilers scored five goals at 5×5 v. Dallas on Saturday. They allowed two and skated away with a 5-4 victory. Zach Hyman scored twice, Connor Brown scored his second goal in 32 games, Viktor Arvidsson scored his second in 18 games and Connor McDavid scored his first 5×5 goal in 13 games. McDavid undressed Ilya Lybushkin before beating Jake Oettinger with a nifty backhand. Arvidsson looked like a real goal scorer hammering a one-timer past Oettinger, while Hyman buried a breakaway and scored a tap in goal from the goal line.

Everyone knew McDavid was going to start scoring again. That should have been the least of any fan’s worry, but Arvidsson hasn’t looked comfortable offensively all season. Could that goal jumpstart him? The Oilers’ third line has struggled for a long stretch, and Brown’s enthusiastic celebration on the 5-1 goal illustrated how frustrated he’s been offensively. Brown, Mattias Janmark and Adam Henrique need to contribute more.

Edmonton didn’t give up much 5×5 in that game. Jamie Benn made a nice play to spin off the defender and fire a backhand goal, while Dallas’ other 5×5 goal was an own goal that ricocheted in off of Ty Emberson’s skate. Stuart Skinner also robbed Mikko Rantanen early in the third period for one of his best saves of the season.

Now, the Oilers need to reestablish some consistency 5×5. It was the worst part of their game during their recent 11-game funk, but in consecutive victories over Montreal and Dallas they were solid 5×5, and that must continue on this road trip. The Oilers have many winnable games on this trip. They play 30th-place Buffalo, the 23rd-place Islanders, the 18th-place Rangers and the injury-riddled, 13th-place New Jersey Devils. They should return to Edmonton with at least six points.

— Jake Walman had an outstanding debut for the Oilers. He logged 24:40, had a great assist on Hyman’s second goal, landed a huge hit on Rantanen and made two solid defensive plays (blocking a shot, and blocking a pass) late in the game as Dallas pressed with the extra attacker. At 5×5 he played 20:01 and was mainly paired with Darnell Nurse. They were excellent together and both finished the game outscoring Dallas 3-0 at 5×5. Walman’s mobility was apparent all night. He’s an excellent skater, very active all over the ice, can move the puck and he has a bomb of a shot. His fastest shot this year is 98.9 miles per hour.

— Evan Bouchard’s fastest shot is 98.8 mph. He leads the NHL with 61 shots of 90+ mph. Walman is tied for fifth with 31. Mattias Ekholm’s hardest shot is 98.3 mph and he has 19 shots of 90+. Edmonton has three defenders who can really rip it.

— It was only one game, but it was interesting to see the TOI distribution between the Oilers defenders on Saturday. Nurse was excellent and logged a season-high 27:58, while Walman played 24:40 and Brett Kulak skated 22:05. Bouchard played 18:37, all at 5×5 as the Oilers didn’t get a power play. When Ekholm returns, it will be interesting to see how Paul Coffey distributes the minutes. I asked Kris Knoblauch if he plans to keep Walman with Nurse and he said they will get a look, but he did say he wants to see Walman with other guys as well. Walman and Kulak can play the right side, which gives Coffey the flexibility to move guys around, plus Kulak has had a great season and he should play more than the typical third-pair minutes.

— The Walman addition will help Edmonton long-term but also helps them to give Mattias Ekholm more time to get healthy, without having any real drop off in talent. Ekholm won’t play again tonight and there is no reason to rush him back.

— Jeff Skinner will draw in against his former team. It will be interesting to see how many games he plays down the stretch, and who he plays against. He has been scratched nine times since January 1st.

— Saturday is an example where a statistic doesn’t tell the story. Stuart Skinner had a very strong game. He had no chance on either Dallas PP goal or their fourth goal which ricocheted in off of Ty Emberson’s skate. Skinner absolutely robbed Mikko Rantanen early in the third period, yet many point to the fact he had -0.71 goals saved above expected and try to argue he didn’t have a strong game. The numbers don’t always tell the story, and it is clear the formula clearly has flaws when that game shows up as a negative game by Skinner. Analytics have flaws just like the eye test, but many who believe strongly in analytics rarely seem to mention the flaws.

— Leon Draisaitl can set a new career high if he picks up one point tonight. He’s riding a 14-game point streak. It is the third 14-game streak of his career and second this season (December 5th to January 4th). He also had a 14-game streak in 2018-19.

— Draisaitl can become the sixth Oiler with a 15-game point streak. Wayne Gretzky did it 12 times (51, 39, 30, 28, 24, 19, 18, 18, 17, 16, 16 and 15 games), Paul Coffey once (28), Jari Kurri twice (18, 15) McDavid five times (17, 17, 16, 15, 15) and Glenn Anderson (15) once.

— The Buffalo Sabres will extend their NHL-record to 14 consecutive seasons without making the playoffs. It has been another disappointing year in Buffalo. Despite their continued ineptitude, the Oilers haven’t had much success in Buffalo in the McDavid/Draisaitl era, winning three of eight meetings. They are 3-2-3 and they’ve only scored 19 goals. The games have been mainly low scoring as they’ve only allowed 21 goals. Edmonton has only scored four goals once and that was when Kyle Brodziak scored the game winner late in the second period in 2019.

— It’s surprising how little success the Oilers’ offence has had in Buffalo. Since McDavid’s rookie season, the Sabres have allowed the second-most goals against in the NHL on home ice at 3.16. In that same time frame, the Oilers have scored the sixth-most goals on the road, but they struggle to score in Buffalo. It’s an oddity.

Paul Coffey played Walman with Nurse and Bouchard with Kulak v. Dallas. The morning skate had them skating in pairings listed above. We’ll see how Coffey deploys his backend tonight, but Buffalo isn’t nearly as skilled or as deep as Dallas’ forwards, so spreading his top four D-men across three pairings makes more sense.

I’m curious to see the TOI allocation of the third and fourth lines tonight. Max Jones has been very noticeable (in limited minutes) in both of his games. He gives the Oilers a physical element they’d been lacking in their bottom six, while Corey Perry continues to score.

It looks like Jason Zucker will return to the lineup. He hasn’t played since February 25th and his injury might have been why the Sabres didn’t trade him at the deadline. Teams might have been leery to acquire him. He has 18 goals and is on pace for his third-highest goal total of his career (33 and 27 are his top two seasons). He’s been one of the few bright spots in Buffalo.

The Sabres made a major trade on Friday, moving Dylan Cozens, Dennis Gilbert and a second-round pick to Ottawa for Josh Norris and Jacob Bernard-Docker. I really don’t understand this move by Buffalo. Norris is a more consistent producer, but he’s had three surgeries on his shoulder. Cozens is grittier and also scored 31 goals and 68 points in 2023. He’s going to help Ottawa, while Buffalo continues to spin its tires. They need a new GM and more experience in their front office. Kevyn Adams has had five seasons as GM, and the Sabres aren’t any better than when he took over. They peaked in 2023 when they had 91 points, but still missed the playoffs, and since then they are doing downhill again.

GAME DAY PREDICTION: Oilers win three in a row and pull within two points of Vegas with a 5-2 victory.

OBVIOUS GAME DAY PREDICTION: Draisaitl extends his point streak to 15 games.

NOT-SO-OBVIOUS GAME DAY PREDICTION: Oilers score five goals in a game in Buffalo for the first time since 1999. And McDavid scores his first career PP goal v. Buffalo.